PBB Beri Amaran Krisis Dolar Amerika

Gold, Silver, Oil Will Spike To New Highs If US-UK Attack Libya

Mar. 1 2011 - 2:58 pm

You can’t keep precious metals down when the globe is agog over violent political change, the freezing of dictators’ assets in the US and Switzerland– and deep anxiety over the price of oil.

Gold and silver, led by crude oil, will spike if talks between the US and UK for joint military action in Libya take root. This threat to the Libyan oil fields and to peace in the region would have an immediate impact in commodity markets.

Remember 1980 with our hostages in Iran; gold rose to $800 an ounce (there was double-digit inflation– at least 5 times the rate today) and silver to $50 (the Hunts idiotically tried to corner the market)

We are not that far from the peak in gold- $1440 an ounce. Just another $10 an ounce spike is half the $20 an ounce we made up today so far. We are at a 30 year peak for silver, which has been acting even more positively than gold.

I don’t think this is the Bernanke market, as he made it clear today that inflation is just the 2% he wants, and that’s despite the horrific run-up in food prices. And he’s beaten off deflation with QE2. No knee-jerk connection between Bernanke and precious metals.

The connection for gold and silver is geo-political. My new rule of thumb for gold and silver; the more uprisings that lead to oil supply fears the more speculation will hive onto gold and silver. Or put it another way, as go oil fears, so goes money into gold and silver.

So, battles on the Tunisian- Libyan border, calls for public demonstrations in Teheran, unrest in Bahrain, Algeria that suggests the daisy chain moves ultimately to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and who-knows-where-else all add up to uncertainty about oil prices.

And uncertainty about oil prices– especially if they trend higher– suggest to me somewhat higher gold and oil prices.

Ben Bernanke Can’t Stop The Gold, Silver,Oil Speculation

Apr. 30 2011 - 2:36 pm

The Fed chairman is  between a rock and a hard place.  He can’t raise interest rates to stop the dollar’s descent, because higher interest rates will damage the already weak recovery.  So, he is forced to keep money cheap to help stimulate activity– which is the fundamental force driving stock prices– and the hottest commodity prices higher. It’s a win-win for macro hedge funds using leverage.

So, he is faced with  a quandry.Unsold homes, mortgage foreclosures, lower household wealth,  high unemployment, modest income growth, are between the rock and the hard place. As the dollar keeps weakening, gold, silver and oil keep strengthening. Gold  has madly rushed to $1556.40 an ounce, without any real correction. Oil prices  are up 7.3% in April as speculative fervor in the futures market recognizes the repeat of a classic momentum trade. Silver is getting ready  to make its final push through $50 an ounce just as the regulator and market participants are madly raising margin requirements.

We are closing in on mania in silver, and growing conviction gold and oil will protect your out that relationship for a moment or two.loss of value in the dollar. In otherwords, the price of easy money stimulation is a falling price of the doillar and a rising  prices of gold, silver and oil. This is what the Chairman calls “transitory” inflation.” And it’s coming as the result of the Fed adding $3.8 billion  a day  to its  balance  sheet , according to Comstock Partners, Inc. in an April 28 market comment. Federal Reserve Bank credit is up 38% the past 3 months, while stocks are up only 8% , oil over 20%, and gold 10%.  Think about that relationship for a moment or two. When the Fed balance sheet finally is reduced– Bernanke’s  not saying when– there will be  speculators running forthe exit.

So, my rule of thumb is: as long as the Fed balance sheet rises and the dollar keeps  declining—   hot money, fast money into stocks, gold and oil. My quick thinking pal, Barry Ritholtz, shifted from a 30% long pposition to 90% as the market momentum kept surprising him. His latest shrewd  BA, Boeing, CBOE, Chicago Board of Options Exchange(lot of action out there),and  HSY, Hershey.

Kisah Harga Emas dan Perak

Di saat saya menulis artikel ini, harga emas sedang berada di kemuncak  iaitu US$1565.70/oz setelah melepasi  paras US$1500/oz minggu lepas. Terdetik di hati saya apakah faktor  faktor yang menyebabkan turun naik harga emas dunia. Mengikut adat dan  kebiasaannya, harga  komoditi  dan  barangan adalah berasaskan konsep Supply  and  Demand  (Permintaan  dan penawaran). Adakah emas juga bersifat sedemikian ?

Sebelum itu, izinkan saya untuk menjelaskan bahawa peranan wang US Dolar ini sangat besar di dunia kerana tatkala ini hampir semua matawang dunia terikat atau disandarkan kepada matawang US Dolar malahan hampir semua komoditi dunia juga didagangkan dalam matawang US Dolar. Secara faktanya, matawang US Dolar bukan disandarkan kepada nilai emas semata mata tetapi disandarkan kepada harapan dunia terhadap Amerika.

Jadi, apa yang berlaku sekiranya nilai US Dolar semakin meningkat, maka kuasa membeli  (Purchasing  Power) adalah  menjadi semakin besar  di mana hanya sedikit  kuantiti  US  Dolar diperlukan untuk membeli apa jua komoditi yang dinilaikan pada matawang US Dolar. Begitu juga sebaliknya, jika matawang US Dolar  jatuh  bermakna  kita  memerlukan  jumlah kuantiti US Dolar yang lebih banyak untuk membeli komoditi pada kuantiti yang sama. Saya harap anda jelas tentang konsep ini.

Berbalik kepada persoalan asas, apakah yang mempengaruhi harga emas sebenarnya. Saya percaya ianya juga berasaskan konsep  Supply  and  Demand  (Permintaan  dan  Penawaran) di mana apabila berlakunya  kemerosotan  ekonomi di Amerika dan Eropah, matawang  utama dunia juga akan terjejas. Ini akan menyebabkan para pelabur akan cuba melindungi kepentingan mereka dengan membeli emas kerana semua orang tahu Emas dan Perak adalah satu komoditi yang Kali inflasi (Zero Inflation). Keadaan di mana para pelabur menarik modal mereka dan membeli emas dan perak secara panik menyebabkan harga emas dan perak meningkat kerana permintaan melebihi penawaran. Itu yang berlaku sekarang ini setelah Ben Bernanke (Pengerusi Federation US) mengumumkan tidak akan meningkatkan kadar faedah seperti yang pernah dilakukan pada tahun 1981 dalam usaha membendung kejatuhan nilai US Dolar.  Ben Bernanke berpendapat dengan menaikkan kadar faedah lebih cenderung untuk menggagalkan proses pemulihan ekonomi Amerika Syarikat yang sedang tenat ketika ini. Beliau juga terpaksa menetapkan nilai US Dolar  yang kini semakin murah dalam usaha merangsang aktiviti aktiviti ekonomi yang merupakan tulang belakang dalam meningkatkan semula nilai stok dan komoditi dunia.

Sila lawati link ini untuk keterangan yang  lebih lanjut.

http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2011/04/30/ben-bernanke-cant-stop-the-gold-silveroil-speculation/

Matawang US Dolar adalah merupakan denominator untuk  apa  jua  komoditi  di dunia termasuklah logam berharga Emas dan Perak kerana berdasarkan kepada  pemerhatian  saya,  sekiranya  nilai matawang US Dolar jatuh, sudah pasti nilai emas akan meningkat. Tapi harus diingat, peningkatan harga emas bukan  penanda  aras  bahawa  emas  tersebut  nilainya  meningkat tetapi disebabkan  nilai  matawang  US  Dolar yang menyusut dan untuk membeli emas memerlukan  lebih  banyak US Dolar. Jadi jangan tertipu dengan mainan ilusi pihak barat  sekiranya  harga  emas jatuh, itu bukan bermakna nilai hakiki emas itu sendiri yang merosot tetapi akibat mainan konsep supply and demand bagi mengaburi kelemahan wang fiat yang semakin tenat hari demi hari.

Jadi jangan terperanjat yer kalau harga emas jatuh selepas berada di kemuncak sejak wujudnya tamadun dunia.